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The Political Cost of Discarding Turkey’s Russian-Made S-400 Is Too High

Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system has been a significant source of tension between Ankara and its NATO allies, particularly the United States. The purchase has not only strained Turkey’s relationships with its traditional partners but has also posed a significant political cost for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government. While the operational capabilities of the S-400 are not in question, it is becoming increasingly clear that the system’s political costs are proving higher than anticipated.

The S-400 is widely recognized as a highly capable air defense system, with its long-range radar and missile technology capable of detecting and intercepting a wide range of threats. However, the purchase of this Russian system by a NATO member has raised concerns among Turkey’s Western allies, particularly within the US-led alliance. The fear is that the S-400, once integrated into Turkey’s defense infrastructure, could compromise the security of other NATO assets, particularly the advanced F-35 fighter jets which Turkey was also set to acquire.

The United States reacted swiftly and decisively, removing Turkey from the F-35 program and imposing sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Additionally, some US lawmakers have called for further measures to be taken against Turkey, including reevaluating its NATO membership.

The Russian-made S-400 system has also sparked concerns within NATO regarding the implications for alliance cohesion and interoperability. The S-400’s advanced radar system could potentially gather sensitive information about NATO’s aerial capabilities, and its presence on Turkish soil puts NATO forces at risk of being targeted by Russian systems trained to operate against NATO assets.

However, the political costs of the S-400 do not stop at strained relations with the United States and NATO. Turkey’s decision to purchase the Russian air defense system has also strained its ties with other regional actors, most notably Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. These countries have close ties with the United States and view Turkey’s alignment with Russia as a threat to their own security interests. By purchasing the S-400, Turkey has found itself increasingly isolated within its regional alliances.

Moreover, the S-400 has become a contentious issue within Turkish domestic politics. Opposition parties have criticized Erdogan’s government for jeopardizing Turkey’s relationships with its traditional allies and for spending billions of dollars on a defense system that ultimately alienates the country from its strategic partners. The purchase has also exacerbated existing political divisions within the Turkish population, with some segments supporting Erdogan’s assertive posture, while others question the wisdom of risking Turkey’s security relationships for short-term gains.

Economic repercussions are another facet of the political cost of the S-400. Although Turkey has sought to minimize the potential economic damage caused by the US sanctions imposed after the S-400 purchase, the country’s fragile economy, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, makes it vulnerable to financial instability. The potential for further economic sanctions, as well as the impact on foreign direct investment and international trade, could further exacerbate Turkey’s economic challenges.

In light of these multifaceted political costs, it becomes increasingly evident that getting rid of the S-400 system might be a politically costly and complex process for Turkey. While Ankara has expressed a willingness to engage in discussions with the United States regarding the deployment and use of the S-400, finding a viable solution that satisfies all parties involved will be no easy task.

In conclusion, the acquisition of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system has proven to be too politically costly for Turkey to easily rid itself of. The strained relations with the United States and NATO, growing regional isolation, domestic political divisions, and potential economic repercussions make the S-400 a significant political liability for President Erdogan’s government. As Turkey navigates this complex situation, finding a resolution that addresses these political costs remains a paramount challenge.

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